the early signal — issue #2

TL;DR

A Substack post wiped nearly a trillion dollars in software stocks overnight. Citrini's '2028 Global Intelligence Crisis' isn't a thought experiment — it's a roadmap. UBI isn't if. It's which version.

Key Takeaways

1. 1.White-collar obsolescence isn't cyclical — there's no 'come back' from structural AI displacement.
2. 2.UBI vs UHI: the distinction matters. Elon's vision is beautiful. The turbulence between here and there is the real question.
3. 3.The barbell economy: deflation at the bottom, inflation at the top. The gap in the middle is where everyone has to choose.
4. 4.AI entertainment's unlock: genuine uncertainty + real financial stakes. We're still in the 'radio on TV' era.
5. 5.Bits need atoms. The real AI trade isn't Nvidia — it's energy, metals, and physical infrastructure.

gm.

a substack post dropped sunday night and wiped out nearly a trillion dollars in software and payments stocks by monday morning.

it was written as a "thought exercise" a scenario set in june 2028, looking back at how AI dismantled the white-collar economy. citrini called it "the 2028 global intelligence crisis."

"a 2028 macroeconomic memo that lays out a hypothetical future in which rapid advances in AI trigger a profound repricing of human labour, leading to white-collar obsolescence and a systemic consumption collapse."

visa, doordash, servicenow, workday all got hit.

i posted it sunday and said "read this if you don't want to sleep tonight."

i meant it.

UBI is coming. the question is what kind.

the citrini piece digs right into the core of it. this isn't a cyclical problem. when a lawyer who made $1,000 an hour is suddenly making nothing it's not like 2008, where you wait two years and the jobs come back. there's no "come back." the structural change is permanent.

anyone who's played with the newest AI models in the last 60 days would tell you the same thing. what took a team of people a month to produce, one person with the right tools can do before lunch. and it's getting faster, not slower.

here's the question the citrini debate surfaces that nobody has a clean answer to: you can cut your entire workforce, 10x your margins, and watch your revenue dry up because you just fired your customers.

that's the trap. and the answer forces a conclusion the market hasn't priced yet: some form of UBI isn't a left-wing fantasy. it's a business necessity. capitalism works great at getting people what they want but only if they have money.

here's how fast this is already happening at the individual level: any time i'm paying for SaaS now, i look up the cost to implement it myself and whether i can do it without the headaches. within six months i'll probably be able to recreate Excel in less than a day. the SaaS companies that survive this will do it by cutting headcount and expanding margins not by growing revenue. price compression is coming first. then margin compression after that, because the cost to build software is going to zero, which means pricing power evaporates with it.

the debate isn't if. it's which version.

UBI vs UHI and this distinction matters.

elon was on the peter diamandis podcast last month talking about universal high income. not basic. high. the vision: AI abundance makes survival cheap. food, housing, basic goods costs collapse. everyone gets enough to live comfortably.

it sounds beautiful. diamandis pushed him: "great. but what happens between here and there?"

elon dodged. said it'd be "turbulent."

think about that for a second. the richest man in the world, who has more money than he could spend in a thousand lifetimes, is still building rockets. still building AI. still building everything. he's not retiring. he's not coasting. he's not satisfied.

if having the most money in the world isn't enough for elon musk to stop what does that tell you about what you should be doing right now?

because here's what the UHI world actually looks like: the barbell economy. survival gets cheaper food, housing, basics go down. but the top gets astronomically more expensive. there are only so many hamptons houses. only so many great schools. only so many front-row seats. when everybody has purchasing power and supply is constrained, those prices go parabolic.

deflation at the bottom. inflation at the top.

and the gap in the middle is where everyone has to choose which side they're on.

my take: the UBI conversation starts this year. not 2028. as unemployment stops being cyclical and starts being structural, government can't stay quiet. watch for it to become a midterm issue. definitely a 2028 presidential issue.

are you more worried about the turbulence between here and the UHI future, or are you already positioning for the opportunity? reply and let me know.

wispr flow

wispr flow has been an incredible product that has totally changed my workflows. i installed it 16 days ago and i've used it every day since i can't believe i didn't install it earlier.

i'm currently speaking at around 153 words a minute and have spoken over 64,000 words. the majority of this newsletter was actually written using wispr flow. it's my main form of communication now. the dictation is way better at understanding what i'm actually talking about it's changed the process of writing and coding at the speed of sound.

outside of ai agents, it's probably one of the most important apps i've been using. can't recommend it enough. check it out here →

what i'm seeing

AI entertainment. nobody's seeing the real opportunity.

here's the short version.

reality TV is a massive market. almost 40% of people watch it. and it has one fatal flaw: someone always knows the outcome. producers, editors, cast it's already been filmed and cut by the time you see it. the suspense is manufactured.

sports doesn't have that problem. that's why the US commercial gaming industry just did $71.5 billion. nobody knows what happens. not the players, not the coaches, not the broadcasters. that genuine uncertainty is what makes betting work, which is what makes the economics work, which is what makes the content compelling.

we've been stuck: the only truly unpredictable live entertainment at scale is sports. everything else is scripted.

AI agents change that.

for the first time, you can create entertainment where nobody knows what happens next not even the creators. intelligent, adaptive agents making autonomous decisions in real time. and if nobody knows the outcome, you can build real markets around it.

that's the unlock: entertainment + genuine uncertainty + real financial stakes.

we're in the "radio on TV" era right now. people are putting AI into old formats AI influencers, AI chatbots in reality shows. that's radio being read on camera. the real formats the ones only possible because AI exists haven't been built yet.

what @poof_eth is doing with DX Terminal Pro is the closest thing to it right now. multiple tokens, AI agents trading them 24/7, weakest ones eliminated until one survives. nobody knows which one. not poof, not the team, nobody. a three-week experiment on base starting this week.

that's the prototype. what comes after it is the category.

ai alpha

the 30 questions play.

a friend texted this week asking if i could help automate workflows in his business. while we were still chatting, my agent generated 30 specific questions about his industry. i sent them before he could ask the first one.

his mind was blown.

we're talking thursday.

that's the leverage. AI doesn't just do your job with the right setup, one person with context looks like an entire consulting firm. i built two websites this week without a single developer. for what used to cost $15-25k and six weeks, i'm spending tokens and an afternoon.

the gap between people who get this and people who don't is getting wider every week.

the macro

AI runs on electricity. every major tech company is now quietly becoming an energy company microsoft, google, amazon all acquiring nuclear and renewables at scale. the market is pricing AI through nvidia and the software layer. but the smarter trade is the world of atoms underneath it not just energy, but metals, physical infrastructure, the raw materials that make any of this possible. bits need atoms. that trade isn't going anywhere.

over the coming weeks i'm planning to do some deep dives into different spaces and specific names i like. stay tuned.

quick hits

"when everyone has AI, the alpha goes back to humans" Naval's take. every trader has a bot. the bots cancel each other out. the edge goes back to human judgment, taste, and reading the room. that's the thing AI can't commoditize.

"curation is the name of the game" polymaths who know what to ignore will dominate the next five years. the bottleneck isn't access to information anymore. it's filtering.

"in the future, everyone shows up with their agent" someone said it on a call this week. why would you invite anyone into a room who didn't have one? they won't be able to keep up.

i'm officially a dev now shipped two sites this week without a single developer. the bar for who counts as a developer just dropped permanently.

where to find me

• @gmoneyNFT on X — daily signal
• g.money — full breakdowns, blog posts, archives

---

the early signal is a weekly newsletter by gmoney — CryptoPunk #8219. cultural observations. trade ideas. ai alpha. deal flow. subscribe free →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis?

A research piece by Citrini Research written as a 'thought exercise' from June 2028, laying out a hypothetical future where rapid AI advances trigger white-collar obsolescence and systemic consumption collapse. It wiped nearly a trillion dollars in software and payments stocks the Monday after it was published.

What is UHI vs UBI?

UBI is Universal Basic Income — a floor that prevents poverty. UHI is Universal High Income — Elon Musk's vision where AI abundance makes survival cheap and everyone gets enough to live comfortably. The debate isn't if some form of guaranteed income is coming. It's which version, and what the turbulence looks like in between.

What is the barbell economy?

In a UHI world, survival gets cheaper — food, housing, basics go down. But the top gets astronomically more expensive. There are only so many Hamptons houses, great schools, front-row seats. When everyone has purchasing power and supply is constrained, those prices go parabolic. Deflation at the bottom. Inflation at the top.

What is agentic entertainment?

A new category of entertainment where AI agents make autonomous decisions in real time — creating genuine uncertainty no producer, editor, or broadcaster can predict. The unlock: entertainment + genuine uncertainty + real financial stakes. The only truly unpredictable live entertainment at scale has been sports. AI agents change that.